NEMA Monitors Storm System Nearing Islands
BASSETERRE — The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and the St. Kitts Meteorological Services are closely monitoring an area of low pressure in the mid-Atlantic Ocean, designated Invest 92L, that forecasters say could strengthen into a tropical depression within two to three days as it moves toward the Eastern Caribbean.
In an info graphic issued Wednesday on social media, NEMA said environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development and that the system is likely to reach the general area of the island chain by this weekend.
The agency cautioned that there is still uncertainty surrounding the system’s exact path and what type of weather, if any, the region may experience as a result.
“There is no watch or warning currently in effect for St. Kitts and Nevis nor any of the islands,” the agency said, urging residents to closely monitor updates from the department.
The advisory follows a forecast issued earlier Wednesday by regional meteorologists, who tracked the same system as it moved into the Eastern Caribbean and said it could bring much-needed rain to St. Kitts and Nevis and neighboring islands as early as this weekend.
Forecasters said the American, Canadian and Icon forecast models generally show the disturbance strengthening into a tropical depression, while the European model kept it as an unclassified disturbance. Wind shear and dry, dusty air in the atmosphere are expected to limit rapid strengthening, and that nothing in current forecasts points to the system becoming a hurricane.
“If it stays weak, that is excellent news,” one forecaster said. “We will get some rain in some spots that so desperately need it.”
Scattered showers are expected across Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, and Trinidad and Tobago as the system moves through the region this week, with rain chances increasing across the northeastern Caribbean, including St. Kitts and Nevis, by early next week.
NEMA and the Met Office urged residents to remain alert and to rely on official updates as the system approaches, noting that its strength and track could still change. Officials reiterated that preparedness measures should be reviewed now, even though no watch or warning has been issued.
A separate tropical wave near Cabo Verde is also being tracked but is not showing signs of near-term development, forecasters said.
