Cristobal Fades, But Caribbean System Persists
BASSETERRE — Tropical Storm Cristobal, the Atlantic’s third named storm of the season, weakened to a tropical depression Thursday and is expected to dissipate over the open North Atlantic, even as forecasters continue to track a separate disturbance nearing the Eastern Caribbean that could still strengthen before reaching the region.
Cristobal formed Wednesday but quickly lost strength and poses no threat to land, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. If another storm forms this season, it will be named Dolly.
Forecasters said the system previously flagged by St. Kitts’ National Emergency Management Agency as Invest 92L now has roughly an 80% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression later this week as it tracks westward across the tropical Atlantic. However, the odds of further strengthening are expected to decline as the system nears the Eastern Caribbean by Friday, as it runs into increasingly hostile wind shear. A separate area farther east has a lower, roughly 50% chance of development in the coming days.
The wind shear is being driven by El Niño, which forecasters say is strengthening and could grow into a record-breaking event in the months ahead. The climate pattern has kept the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season unusually quiet so far, with only two storms, Arthur and Bertha, forming before Cristobal. Both remained weak as they moved along the U.S. Gulf Coast earlier this season, and no hurricane has yet formed this year, despite the first typically arriving by mid-August.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has grown more confident in a below-average season overall, raising its odds from 55% to 75% in an update last week and narrowing its forecast for major hurricanes this year to between zero and two.
NEMA and the St. Kitts Meteorological Services have said there is no watch or warning currently in effect for St. Kitts and Nevis or any of the islands, and have urged residents to continue monitoring official updates as the disturbance approaches the region later this week.
