Rain Chance Building for SKN This Weekend

BASSETERRE — St. Kitts and Nevis could see increased rain chances Sunday night into Monday as a tropical disturbance moves through the northeastern Caribbean, according to the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook issued Thursday.

The system, currently a disorganized area of low pressure several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, has a 70 percent chance of developing into a short-lived tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours, the NHC said. If it strengthens enough, it would be named Tropical Storm Dolly, the next name on this year’s list.

Forecasters cautioned that any development is likely to be brief. The system is expected to run into hostile conditions, including dry air and wind shear, as it nears the Caribbean, which should weaken or dissolve it before it arrives. Some forecast models, including the European model, suggest the system could try to redevelop later as it curves farther north, closer to Bermuda or the Bahamas.

Despite the uncertain track, forecasters say the disturbance still represents the best chance in weeks for meaningful rainfall across the northeastern Caribbean, including St. Kitts-Nevis, where dry conditions have persisted for much of the season. The rain, if it materializes, would likely arrive in broken, uneven bands rather than a single widespread system, meaning some islands could see significant rainfall while others receive little to none.

Along with rain, forecasters are tracking the potential for gusty winds as the system approaches this weekend. Wind gusts could reach 70 to 80 kilometers per hour, or roughly 40 to 50 miles per hour, in some areas by Sunday afternoon, even if the system does not officially develop into a tropical depression or storm.

Rough surf is also expected across the central Caribbean in the coming days, with seas building to between 7 and 11 feet in some areas, according to the outlook.

Forecasters stressed that the rainfall outlook is not guaranteed. Similar systems earlier this season have either dried out before reaching the region or shifted north, missing the islands that needed rain most. A second tropical wave trailing behind the disturbance will also be monitored for possible rain chances into the following week.