Forecasters Track Tropical Waves Near Caribbean
BASSETERRE — Meteorologists are monitoring a tropical wave in the central Atlantic that could strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm by the end of this week, with forecasters warning the system may track close to the Lesser Antilles as the region enters the most active stretch of the hurricane season.
The wave, located a few hundred miles southwest of Cabo Verde, is showing early signs of organization despite lingering wind shear and dry, dusty air across the tropical Atlantic. Forecasters said the disturbance has roughly a 20% chance of development within the next two days, but that the likelihood rises to about 60% over the coming week.
According to the latest tropical outlook, the system could merge with a separate tropical wave expected to move off the west coast of Africa in the coming days, a combination forecasters said could accelerate its development into the season’s next tropical depression or storm. Some forecast models show the system organizing by midweek and moving closer to the Lesser Antilles by Thursday or Friday, though it remains too early to determine whether it will directly affect St. Kitts and Nevis or other islands in the chain.
Forecasters cautioned that residents should not read too much into a quiet start to the season. The Atlantic has so far produced two weak, short-lived tropical storms this year, both of which crossed the Texas coast without major impact. The region is now about one month from Sept. 10, the historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, when storm activity typically increases significantly.
“Just because it’s been fairly quiet doesn’t mean that we can’t start to see numerous storms developing,” the broadcast meteorologist said, noting that a strong El Niño pattern is expected to limit, but not eliminate, overall storm activity this season.
Two additional disturbances are also being tracked in the Atlantic, though forecasters said both have only about a 10% chance of development. One is positioned in the central Atlantic, while the other is moving northeast, away from the Caribbean and the United States, toward cooler waters expected to end its chances of strengthening.
Forecasters said the wave nearest the Antilles remains unlikely to threaten Texas or the wider U.S. Gulf Coast, but stressed that its track could still change. They urged residents across the Caribbean to stay alert and continue storm preparations regardless of how many systems have formed so far this season, noting that it takes only one storm making landfall to cause significant damage.
