Tropical Cyclone Alert Statement
WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (AL91) ALERT STATEMENT ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 8:18 AM ECT FRI, SEP 2, 2022
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.
AT 8 AM ECT OR 1200 UTC THE DISTURBANCE (AL91) WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 574 MILES EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY, THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY STILL POSES A LOW THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA; HENCE APART FROM CONTINUED MONITORING, NO OTHER ACTIONS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
AL91 CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR IT WILL PASS FROM THE ISLANDS BECAUSE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER IS NOT YET FORMED.
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED; HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS (ST. KITTS) MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALSO, SWELLS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO BEACH-GOERS DURING THE WEEKEND.
RESIDENTS ARE USED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN AREAS THAT ARE PRONED TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE EVENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS MATERIALIZES. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 8 PM ECT, OR 0000 UTC OR SOONER SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY.
FORECASTER
LETITIA HUMPHREYS